Monday, July 13, 2009

My Love Affair With AIG

Somebody I know told me that he prefers to stay out of NYSE because it run by money makers and its the best place to loose your money. AIG is probably the most speculated stock in the world right now. After the company announced reverse split some "magic unseen force" created computer glitch on NYSE that caused notice of possible delisting from NYSE to appear. Then some analyst said that the company "may have" zero equity after selling assets at low prices. Allow me amateur to ask you analyst professionals how can you have any idea about the equity AIG may or may not have while the situation is changing everyday and AIG management itself is having serious difficulties with its own accounting? One analyst somehow should outperform the army of AIG accountants the number of which is probably thousands. Then somebody called reverse split 1:20 a kiss of death. Very nice methaphor used at the right time! Within a week the stock went into the most dramatic fall since last September loosing 15-20% per day for over a week. Just yesterday I mentioned to my fellow trader that as soon as the fall ends the rally will begin and here it comes the stock went up 10% as of right now. The future is unpredictable but my intuition is telling me that its totally manipulated. And its ideal candidate for manipulation too because of so much fear associated with it. People get scared. I stay completely cool like old Warren Buffet in spite of $17,000 on paper loss on it. But I'm selling at the next prolonged rally because I've learned enough. Or may be I should just watch the show until the end which in my mind should be sometime at the end of the year. My feeling is that the government will keep pouring as much money as required into it to push its accounting up from red ink. Dear US government I make my bet on you, while you still capable of printing dollars which is not going to last long :)

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